State based maps have been created for each Statistical area 3 (Sa3). Median house prices have been used for each Sa3 using a rolling 90-day sample. The highest median and the corresponding month over the last year has been used to flag a market peak. If the peak is flagged as July 2022 then we really do not yet know if this is the peak or if it will be in August or a later month. Given that 83% of markets have now peaked, chances are that the remaining markets might peak soon as interest rate rises take hold.
Shading on the maps is based on the average month change in values post-peak. Measuring the monthly average change in values only after a market has peaked makes it easier to read. Darker shades of blue are higher monthly value drops. In some of the markets with larger drops, take care when making assumptions about why the median has changed so dramatically. It is common to instantly assume this is a drop in property values. But in some markets the median can change as a result of a large shift in what is being listed and sold. Sometimes we experience a massive shift away from the top priced suburbs and fewer listings in these markets. This can contribute to a fall (or rise) in medians due to the composition of what is listed and sold.
I managed to create few correlation tests including affordability vs. average price drop per month, median prices vs. average price drop per month, months since peak vs. average price drop per month. None have really given me anything of substance to report on. It will take more effort to find some solid reasons. Hopefully I can uncover something.
Pop-up displays show the Sa3 name, the month of the peak, a count of how many months since the peak and the monthly average fall in the median (post peak). Spending some time reviewing the maps has provided some theories;
- Markets that have fallen the least (lowest percentage drops per month) could be considered more resilient
- The longer the period post-peak, the more this resilience is tested
- Combining inventory level analysis with new ‘market resilience’ data might provide some valuable new ways to understand markets for investors
Here are some markets I would consider to be ‘resilient’ based on these assumptions. Each are 3 months or more post-peak, have inventory levels of 3-months or less and have a month on month average price drop of below 1%.
- Port Adelaide – West
- Yorke Peninsula
- Fleurieu – Kangaroo Island
- Port Macquarie
- Dandenong
- Marion
- Hobart – North West
- Barwon – West
- Burnside
- Weston Creek
- Dapto – Port Kembla
- St Marys
- Port Stephens
- Penrith
- Albury
- Monash
- Eastern Suburbs – North
- Whitehorse – West
- Taree – Gloucester
- Mildura
- Newcastle
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