NEW: Best Buys Suburbs Under $500k

Housing Market Overview

  • Risk ranking takes both the inventory levels of both units and houses and is based on the highest of the two. We then calculate a decile ranking (1 to 10) with 1 being the lowest 10% of inventory levels and 10 being the highest nationally. You should check both house inventory and unit inventory on our pop-up window.

  • Property Type: Townhouse / Villa: as defined by ABS.

  • Property Type: Unit / Apartment: as defined by ABS.

  • Tenure: Fully owned: This is the percentage of dwellings fully owned by owner occupied households on the night of the Census. This does not include the proportion of rental dwellings that might be owned outright (by the landlord).

  • Tenure: Being Purchased: Owner-occupied dwelling that have a mortgage.

  • Tenure: Rented: Percentage of dwellings are rented. In areas with significant new apartment construction since 2016, we expect the percentage to have increased significantly since 2016.

  • Advantage Disadvantage Decile: Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) is an ABS product that ranks areas in Australia according to relative socio-economic advantage and disadvantage.

Housing market risk by suburb

  • House Inventory now: Inventory is calculated based on; a) the average count of listings for houses and; b) the average number of house sales per month. By calculating a/b we estimate how many months of stock exist in the current market. Assuming no more properties listed for sale, this tells us how long it would take at current sales volumes to clear all stock. This is strongly correlated with days-on-market.

    • 0 to 3 months: Market conditions most favourable to a seller and upwards pressure on prices.

    • 4 to 5 months: Somewhat favourable seller conditions and modest pressure on prices.

    • 5 to 7 months: Market conditions evenly favour both buyers and sellers without any real pressure on prices to increase or decrease in the short-term.

    • 7 to 9 months: Somewhat favourable conditions for buyers and often associated with larger discounting and longer days-on-market. We often see modest downward pressure on prices in this market.

    • Over 9 months: Strong buyer market conditions and downward price movements can be expected.

  • House Inventory (-6m): Inventory levels as at 6-months ago. We are looking for short-term shifts (up or down) to help us determine changes to market conditions. Movement between inventory categories and complimented by other data help measure a significant shift in market conditions.

  • House Inventory (-12m): Inventory levels as at 12-months ago. We are looking for long-term shifts (up or down) to help us determine changes to market conditions.

  • House DOM (now): This is the cumulative days-on-market for a listing. We take the date the listing is first seen and track through to a known sale date. For this metric to be reliable, it needs the property address to be readily matched. Our tests have shown this to be highly correlated to inventory, however many regions have a tendency to take longer to sell, even under ‘normal’ market conditions. It is also common to see new housing estates show a discrepancy between inventory and days-on-market.

  • House DOM (-6m): A good short-term indicator to track changes in market conditions and used in conjunction with inventory.

  • House DOM (-12m): A good long-term indicator to track changes in market conditions and used in conjunction with inventory.

Housing market price trends by suburb

  • House Listing price median (now): Current listing price median calculated using a rolling 12-month sample. As suburb listings volumes are often rather small in number, we need to use a longer time period in order to calculate a median as to avoid excessive volatility. More often than not, we will still experience volatility in medians at a suburb level due to a wide range of property sizes and values. We also expect many suburbs to be heterogenous, meaning a diverse range of styles and build quality. In the case of many coastal regions, we can see a significant variance in prices depending on proximity to the waterline. As such, medians are generally not used to measure price movement at a suburb level. Medians do however help indicate a typical price for a suburb to help guide buyers. To help understand if a median is more or less ‘normal’, check out our Price Segment charts.

  • House Listing price median (-6m): In more homogeneous suburbs with 5 or more sales per month, we would not expect to see too high a change between median prices over the short-term. Users should be cautious relaying on median price changes as an indication of market growth, especially at a suburb level.

  • House Listing price median (-12m): As a long-term indicator of market price movement, suburb medians are less reliable than using something sub as a stratified median at the Sa3 level.

  • House Lease price median (now): Current rental median price.

  • House Lease price median (-6m): Rental median price as of 6-months ago. Where the suburb has a significant volume of rentals, the median is much more reliable as an indication of price trends than is the case using sale price medians.

  • House Lease price median (-12m): Rental price median as at 12-months ago. Comparing both the change in rental median as well as the vacancy rate data gives landlords, renters and property managers a good idea of what the next rent review looks like after 12-months of a lease. If median prices are falling and vacancy rates increasing, this is a good indication that rent reviews may be flat or warrant a reduction. Conversely, an increase in median prices backed by falling vacancies means an increase in rents would be more likely. Using the map, zoom in for a quick check of the surrounding suburbs. This is a good way to check what options are available to renters who may be willing to move into a nearby suburb to find a better deal.

Unit market risk by suburb

  • Unit Inventory now: Inventory is calculated based on; a) the average count of listings for units/townhomes and; b) the average number of unit/townhome sales per month. By calculating a/b we estimate how many months of stock exist in the current market. Assuming no more properties listed for sale, this tells us how long it would take at current sales volumes to clear all stock. This is strongly correlated with days-on-market.

  • Unit Inventory (-6m): Inventory levels as at 6-months ago. We are looking for short-term shifts (up or down) to help us determine changes to market conditions. Changes between inventory categories, especially if complimented by other data, can help measure a significant shift in market conditions.

  • Unit Inventory (-12m): Inventory levels as at 12-months ago. We are looking for long-term shifts (up or down) to help us determine changes to market conditions.

  • Unit DOM (now):  This is the cumulative days-on-market for a listing. We take the date the listing is first seen and track through to a known sale date. For this metric to be reliable, it needs the property address to be readily matched. Our tests have shown this to be highly correlated to inventory, however many regions have a tendency to take longer to sell, even under ‘normal’ market conditions. It is also common to see new housing estates show a discrepancy between inventory and days-on-market.

  • Unit DOM (-6m): Inventory levels as at 6-months ago. We are looking for short-term shifts (up or down) to help us determine changes to market conditions. Movement between inventory categories and complimented by other data help measure a significant shift in market conditions.

  • Unit DOM (-12m): Inventory levels as at 12-months ago. We are looking for long-term shifts (up or down) to help us determine changes to market conditions.

Unit market price trends by suburb

  • Unit Listing price median (now): Current listing price median calculated using a rolling 12-month sample. As suburb listings volumes are often rather small in number, we need to use a longer time period in order to calculate a median as to avoid excessive volatility. More often than not, we will still experience volatility in medians at a suburb level due to a wide range of apartment sizes and values. We also expect many suburbs and apartment blocks to be heterogenous, meaning a diverse range of ages, styles and build quality. In the case of many coastal regions, we can see a significant variance in prices depending on proximity to the waterline and views. As such, medians are generally not used to measure price movement at a suburb level. Medians do however help indicate a typical price for a suburb to help guide buyers. To help understand if a median is more or less ‘normal’, check out our Price Segment charts.

  • Unit Listing price median (-6m): In more homogeneous suburbs with 5 or more sales per month, we would not expect to see too high a change between median prices over the short-term. Users should be cautious relaying on median price changes as an indication of market growth, especially at a suburb level.

  • Unit Listing price median (-12m): In more homogeneous suburbs with 5 or more sales per month, we would not expect to see too high a change between median prices over the short-term. Users should be cautious relaying on median price changes as an indication of market growth, especially at a suburb level.

  • Unit Lease price median (now): Current rental median price median for units/apartments/townhomes in the suburb.

  • Unit Lease price median (-6m): Rental median price as of 6-months ago. Where the suburb has a significant volume of rentals, the median is much more reliable as an indication of price trends than is the case using sale price medians.

  • Unit Lease price median (-12m): Rental price median as at 12-months ago. Comparing both the change in rental median as well as the vacancy rate data gives landlords, renters and property managers a good idea of what the next rent review looks like after 12-months of a lease. If median prices are falling and vacancy rates increasing, this is a good indication that rent reviews may be flat or warrant a reduction. Conversely, an increase in median prices backed by falling vacancies means an increase in rents would be more likely. Using the map, zoom in for a quick check of the surrounding suburbs. This is a good way to check what options are available to renters who may be willing to move into a nearby suburb to find a better deal.

Vacancy rates by suburb

  • Lease Over 21 Day Listings (now): This is the current estimate of total rentals including houses and units that have been listed for 3-weeks or longer. This is used to help calculate the vacancy rate, however we also like to present this number to help better understand the count of property owners (landlords) that may be facing cashflow problems. It also helps give some perspective to suburbs that have a lower overall number of rental tenure properties.

  • Lease Over 21 Day Listings (-6m): This is the current estimate of total rentals including houses and units that have been listed for 3-weeks or longer as at 6-months ago. Comparing this to current (now) can be an easy way to view medium term rental market shifts.

  • Lease Over 21 Day Listings (-12m): This is the current estimate of total rentals including houses and units that have been listed for 3-weeks or longer as at 12-months ago. Comparing this to current (now) helps us understand any seasonality in the rental market. It is often the case to see higher counts at the end of the calendar year in many suburbs, so care should be taken as to not assume too much using December or January data.

  • Vacancy Rate (now): Calculated using the total count of properties rented via a real-estate agent within the suburb based on Census 2016 data. The Census data splits property types up into 3 main categories; 1) Separate house 2) Semi-detached, row or terrace house, townhouse etc and 3) Flat or apartment. The challenge this creates for us is the grouping of townhouses in with houses. Ideally we would be able to present this data split into houses and units, but this grouping by the ABS limits us. As such, we aggregate all property types rented by a real-estate agent into a single count in the denominator. The numerator is the count of listings that are 21-days and older. This generally works fine in suburbs with larger rental populations (rental tenure %) but can be rather volatile in suburbs with a lower percentage of rentals. We also recognise that in suburbs with a significant volume of new dwellings (especially apartments) built since 2016, the vacancy rate numbers we present are often higher than it actually is. This is due to the fact that many apartments are purchased as investment properties which pushes up rental tenure (%) higher than the base number we are relying on. This is one of the reasons we share the count of listings over 21-days as it helps with some sanity checks.

  • Vacancy Rate (-6m): In markets with higher volumes of rental properties, comparing the vacancy rate as at 6-months prior will help gauge rent market trends.

  • Vacancy Rate (-12m): Verifying vacancy rates as at 12-months ago helps us better understand seasonality and also shows us the long term trend in the local rental market.

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